The Fourth Industrial Revolution in Government Cash Management: Government Cash Forecasting Model using Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is associated with the automation process powered by artificial intelligent support in form of computer-based algorithms to improve effectiveness. Despite its success, Government Cash Management reform in Indonesia found it challenging to provide cash forecasting model with an accuracy that meets an acceptable level of materiality for the cash manager. Having a reliable cash forecasting model is essential for the government to achieve an effective government cash management. However, literature focussing on developing cash forecasting model is scarce. This study is intended to fill the gap by proposing procedures on constructing a reliable government cash forecasting model by comparing the performance of ARIMA, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Hybrid Model. The results provides evidence that ANN method, with its automation features, is superior compare to the statistical-based method, ARIMA and Hybrid Model.